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Overview

Alma Recurrent Global Natural Resources Fund invests primarily in publicly traded equity and debt securities of global natural resource-related companies, operating in a capacity related to the supply, production, distribution, refining, transportation and consumption of natural resources.

The fund’s management is delegated to Recurrent Investment Advisors LLC.

Share Class

NAV

Cumulative Performance (%)

Fund Inception 29 June 2018

Daily Monthly Ytd 1Yr 3Yr 5Yr Incept. Incept.Date

The performance data shown represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.



Strategy & Manager

Fund Strategy

Investment objective: the fund seeks total return by investing in global natural resource-related companies.

  • Typical industries in which the fund invests: energy, basic materials, infrastructure, transportation and logistics
  • The fund may invest in companies of any market size capitalization, including IPOs
  • The investment process incorporates macroeconomic and commodity supply/demand factors with fundamental company analysis


Investment Manager

Recurrent Investment Advisors is focused on understanding and profiting from commodity cycles to make differentiated natural resource investments

  • Formed in April 2017. Registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
  • Primarily owned by its co-founders Mark Laskin and Bradley Olsen, who both have extensive experience in energy investing
  • Based in Houston, Texas (US)

Key Persons

Mark Laskin, Co-founder and Managing Director

Before founding Recurrent Investment Advisors, Mark was the lead energy portfolio manager and Chief Investment Officer at BP Capital Fund Advisors (BPCFA), an energy-focused long-only investment management firm.

Under Mark’s leadership, BPCFA grew from $50mm to nearly $400mm in assets under management in less than 3 years. BPCFA’s energy strategy was the #1 performing energy open-end mutual fund, as ranked by Morningstar, from 12/31/13 to 12/31/16, and its MLP strategy was in the top decile in its Morningstar category over that same time period.

Mark has 13 years of additional portfolio manager experience at Van Kampen, Morgan Stanley and Invesco. As part of a diversified large cap value strategy, Mark managed more than $10 billion and has managed energy portfolios for more than 12 years. While at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Mark served as the internal head of equity investment research.

Mark earned an MBA/MA in Finance from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and a BA in History from Swarthmore College

 

Brad Olsen, Co-founder and Managing Director

Before founding Recurrent Investment Advisors LLC, Brad was the lead MLP portfolio manager for BP Capital Fund Advisors (BPCFA). Under Brad’s leadership, MLP AUM more than doubled (excluding the impact of appreciation).

From 2011 to 2015, Brad led Midstream Research for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH & Co.), where he was recognized as the top all-around stock picker in the US by the Financial Times in 2013, and the top energy stock picker in the US by Starmine in 2014.

Brad also has experience as an investment analyst at Eagle Global Advisors in Houston, where he was part of a 3-person team that grew midstream/MLP AUM from $300mm to over $1bn from 2008 through 2011. He has also worked in investment roles at Millennium International and Strome Investment Management. He began his career in the UBS Investment Banking Global Energy Group in Houston.

Brad earned a BA in Philosophy, Political Science, and Slavic Studies from Rice University in Houston.


Statistics & Commentary

Performance

The performance data shown represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Portfolio Characteristics

Top 10 Position Details

Investment Manager's Commentary

as of 30/11/2020

Market Review and Outlook

With bank failures posing a risk to US economic growth – is the commodity inflation cycle over?
While there were signs in 2022 that food and energy costs and fiscal and monetary tightening were slowing the global economy, the failures of major US regional banks have increased concerns that we are entering a period of sharper economic contraction. Could this be the end of the inflationary cycle?
For much of the last 3 years, Recurrent has drawn parallels between the early 2020s and the early 1970s. In both periods, low interest rates, significant deficit spending, and geopolitical conflict contributed to core inflationary indicators rising rapidly into the double-digits. In our white paper titled “The Great Inflation Misdiagnosis”, we explained that the Fed and recessions could slow inflation, but historically only CAPEX could stop it for good.
This month, we examine the striking parallels between today and the early 1970s to examine whether or not it is likely that the commodity inflation cycle has been secularly impaired by a potential economic recession. As we show below, the 1970s analogues suggest it is much more likely that a US recession offers a short respite (and buying opportunity) before the inflation cycle resumes.
To begin the comparison of the 1970s and 2020s, in the chart below, we look at the progression of CPI in the two eras. After years of muted inflation, year-over-year CPI inflation steadily rose, peaking in 1974/early 2022.

In both periods, the Fed significantly increased interest rates. In the early 1970s, Fed Funds Rate increased from roughly 3% in early 1972 to approximately 13% in the summer of 1974. Similarly, in response to high inflation, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates from nearly 0% in late 2021 to more than 5% at the end of April 2023.

In the face of higher inflation and interest rates, in both periods, oil demand growth peaked and fell to negative YOY growth. Interestingly, despite below-average growth rates, oil prices remained above long term averages, in large part due to below-average CAPEX stunting supply.

Despite persistent commodity undersupply and elevated prices, comparable factors reduced energy CAPEX in the 1970s and are restraining it today. Misguided government incentives (and disincentives), hopes for an accelerated “energy transition” (then it was to nuclear power; today it is to renewables), and fears of a recession kept commodity CAPEX low, in the 1970s and again 50 years later.

By the late 1970s, it was clear that recession hadn’t stopped inflation – it actually prolonged it. The economic slowdown of the early 1970s – which closely mirrors the economic data in 2023 – gave way to a renewed bout of high inflation readings. By the mid-1970s, the Federal Reserve was forced to reduce interest rates to spur economic growth, accelerating dormant inflationary pressures. With commodity CAPEX muted, economic growth caused commodity prices to spike, and CPI reaccelerated beyond its early 1970s peak, despite the fact that real GDP growth in the late 1970s never reached the levels of the early 1970s.

Commodity CAPEX remains well below historical averages…and in line with the 1970s experience
As we outlined in our 2022 white paper, the impact of interest rates has short-term impacts on demand, which can depress inflation in the short run. However, commodity inflation can rapidly return in the absence of investment to create new supply. Unsurprisingly, the trajectory of commodity CAPEX today is tracking that of the early/mid 1970s, far below historical averages.

Early in 2021, we identified the potential similarities between the early 1970s and the post-COVID period. More than 2 years later, the evolution of economic and CAPEX data closely mirrors the early/mid-1970s. Given the below-average commodity CAPEX data, we continue to expect commodity undersupply to cause persistent inflationary pressures on the broader economy, reminiscent of the 1970s into the early 1980s.

Fund

In the month of April 2023, the Alma Recurrent Global Natural Resources Fund fell -0.85% net of fees. Since its June 2018 inception, the Alma Recurrent Global Natural Resources Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 2.76% per year on an annualized basis, net of fees.


Facts & Documents

Facts

Fund Domicile: Luxembourg

Fund Type: UCITS SICAV

Fund Launch: 29 June 2018

Base Currency: USD

Depositary, Administrator, Transfert Agent: BNP Paribas SA

Dealing: Each day with a 1-day notice

Cut-off time: 12 pm CET

Management Company: Alma Capital Investment Management (LU)

Investment Manager: Recurrent Investment Management (LU)

Fund Managers: Mark Laskin & Bradley Olsen

Countries where the fund is registered:
Luxembourg, Austria, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Switzerland, Ireland

Sustainability-related disclosures:
Sustainability factors are integrated into the investment decision-making process. The Investment Manager incorporates several environmental, social and governance (“ESG”) metrics as a quantitative overlay on the selection of investments. He intends to exclude companies engaged in certain activities which are deemed as harmful from an environmental or social perspective. The Investment Manager will generally exclude companies from its investible universe if those metrics reveal systemic poor environmental, social or governance practices, as reflected in third-party environmental, social or governance rankings falling below the 25th percentile. No index has been designated as a reference benchmark for this sub-fund. Further information can be found in the prospectus of the sub-fund. The extent to which the above-mentioned characteristics are met will be included in the annual report of the fund, as from the first report issued after 1 January 2022.

Identifiers:

Institutional USD Capitalisation share class
ISIN: LU1823602369   Ticker: ARGNIUC LX    Launch: 29 Jun 2018

Institutional EUR Capitalisation share class
ISIN: LU1845388146   Ticker: ARGNIEC LX    Launch: 29 Jun 2018

Documents